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Assertion:
NFL teams should go for it on 4th down much more often (even if in their own territory for example), rather than almost always punting.
Essay and/or background: In the National Football League (and indeed at levels of football), coaches usually call for a punt if they face fourth down. They'll usually go for it only if they're down by a lot of a points or if they only need a couple yards and are past midfield. In a 2005 paper
[elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf...]
(pdf), economist David Romer presented an analysis arguing that teams would be better off going for it more often. Seeing this, Coach Kevin Kelley of the Pulaski Academy instituted a strategy where his team very rarely punts, and it seems to have paid off. The national press recently noticed the Arkansas high school's strategy, and it's raised the issue -- what if they tried that in the NFL? Even if they don't go so far as to never punt, I hold that NFL teams should go for it much more frequently than they do now.
Cruxes...
The top point in support right now is, "Since 2006, Pulaski Academy hasn't had a punting unit or practiced punting. In 2006, they reached the state championship and this year are 9-1-1. That's a success."
[Jump]
The top counterargument is, "NFL coaches are smart and highly motivated -- the fact that they don't go on 4th much (and historically haven't) is support for not doing so."
[Jump]
To view all the other arguments on both sides, and delve into the responses to them, just scroll down!
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12
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guha
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Support 1
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12
Nov 23
2007
guha
Since 2006, Pulaski Academy hasn't had a punting unit or practiced punting. In 2006, they reached the state championship and this year are 9-1-1. That's a success.
Counterarguments
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11
Nov 23
2007
nobody1
One high school team's success with the experiment doesn't mean that it will work in the NFL, where defenses are much stronger.
Support 2
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5
Nov 23
2007
guha
Statistically, it will lead to better outcomes, as presented in the Romer analysis.
Support 3
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4
Nov 23
2007
guha
It will be more interesting for viewers!
Counterarguments
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11
Nov 23
2007
nobody1
What's important is winning. That in the end is what will attract a team's viewers.
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NFL teams should go for it on 4th down much more often (even if in their own ...